Author: Time Finance Wei Yalin Editor: Wang Weiwei
On January 18, the National Bureau of Statistics held a press conference for the first national economic operation in 2021.In the past year, China’s economy has recovered steadily, and GDP has increased by 2.3%over the previous year.It is worth noting that this conference has not announced the population -related data in 2020 in this conference.
At the beginning of 2020, shortly after the new crown epidemic broke out, all places entered an emergency, and most of them were at home.At that time, one of the "side effects" of the epidemic may usher in the "fertility wave" at the end of the year.
Compared with the public’s speculation, researchers at home and abroad have issued a warning that the impact of the new crown epidemic on the global population structure will be complex and profound.A report from the China Population and Development Research Center directly under the National Committee of Health and Health pointed out that the impact of the new crown epidemic on fertility will further change the level of population structure and global population aging level in the post -epidemic era, which will affect the global future health challenges and the future health challenges andEconomic growth potential.
Will the world economy gradually getting into a recovery will fall into another more troublesome crisis?As a large population country, will it be involved in the population crisis caused by the epidemic?
The world economy in the post -epidemic era needs to take the population problem seriously.
Image source: Unsplash
The population crisis accelerates the population in many countries
The epidemic has led to signs of population decline in many countries around the world, which undoubtedly shadowed the world economy’s recovery.
According to a comprehensive report of the Canadian "Sing Tao Daily", the Canadian Bureau of Statistics shows that the net growth of the third quarter of 2020 in Canada is 2,767 people.Fall.
CCTV reported that as of June 2020, Singapore’s total population reached 5.69 million, which slipped 0.3%compared to June of the previous year.This is the first time in Singapore’s total population in the past ten years.
When encountering major disasters, people often postpone their fertility plans, so that the population growth rate shows a downward trend.According to the research of Zhang Cuiling, Zhang Xuying, and Zhang Li of the China Population and Development Research Center, the occurrence of catastrophic events such as epidemics, famine, and earthquakes will lead to an average of about 10%to 15%after 9 months.
For example, nine months after the SARS epidemic broke out in 2003, the birth rate of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, fell by about 18%compared with usual; 9 months after the outbreak of the Zaka epidemic in Brazil in 2015, the birth rate of the place where the epidemic was raging compared with the quarterly average decreaseAbout 25%.
Zhang Cuiling said in an interview with Times Financial recently that people’s fertility behaviors have become more cautious in the epidemic environment, and the epidemic may lead to a serious and long -term continuous economic recession.On the one hand, other factors related to disaster may also affect people’s fertility through margin effects, economic effects, death scale effects, and psychological fear effects.
Therefore, there are serious incidents of economic activity and marriage behavior, as well as many diseases that are infected or may easily cause high fear. Even if they do not cause a lot of death, they will have a great impact on the future birth rate.
The epidemic has different influence on the fertility of different countries and people.
In a report released by the German Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) last October, the new crown epidemic will cause the US fertility rate to decline, but the impact of the epidemic on American mothers is uneven: women who have not been in college and are not in college andAfrican -American women are more likely to dispel or delay fertility plans for the cause of the epidemic.
One of the authors of the report, the Max Planck Institute researcher Wei Chen (Chen Wei) said in an interview with Time Finance, "This is because these vulnerable groups are more likely to be in the epidemic.Infection, and it is more difficult to bear the economic losses caused by the epidemic. "
However, surveys from developed countries show that people are likely to delay or abandon fertility due to the new crown epidemic, but in developing countries, the new crown epidemic may bring "baby tide".
In December 2020, the Philippine Population and Development Commission stated that according to the forecast of the statistical department, the national population will reach 110.8 billion in 2021, but because of the new crown epidemic, this number may rise to 111.1 billion or higher.
In this regard, Hong Teng, representative of the United Nations Population Fund in China, explained that due to the damage of the supply chain around the world, it affected the supply of sanitary products including contraceptives, which exacerbated the risk of unexpected pregnancy; in addition, due to the due toSome countries are in a state of sealed cities, and their health systems are tired of responding to the new crown epidemic, making sexual and reproductive health services marginalized.
The epidemic has little impact on the Chinese population
So, the epidemic will increase the growth rate of China’s population?
The impact of the epidemic on China’s population in 2020 has no official data.On January 18, when answering a question from Bloomberg reporters, the director of the National Bureau of Statistics Ning Jizhen said that the population data in 2020 will be announced with the results of the seventh population census in April this year.
Although the impact of the new crown epidemic on China in 2020 is not yet known for the time being, researchers who have been interviewed by Times in the near future generally believe that in the long run, the impact of the epidemic on the Chinese population will not be particularly large.The epidemic will bring the population growth to China’s population growth in a short period of time, but as the economy gradually recovers, the population growth will soon return to the original trend.
Zhang Cuiling told Times Finance, "We can sign up from marriage registration to speculate the birth rate of next year. According to data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of marriage between marriage in the first and third quarters of my country was 1.557 million, 3.879 million, and 5.894 million, respectively. Compared with 2.815 million, 4.98 million, and 7.131 million in the first three quarters of 2019, a decrease of 44.7%, 22.1%, and 17.3%year -on -year. %And 34%. "
Therefore, from marriage registration, it can be speculated that the epidemic will cause the decline in the fertility rate of China’s population in the short term.
However, in the long run, the impact of the epidemic may not have great imagination.Wei Chen mentioned in an interview that China’s high -efficiency "sealed city" state duration is short, which may only directly affect the decline in fertility rates such as November and December.Therefore, from the annual fertility rate data, the impact of epidemic on fertility should be limited.
Zhang Cuiling also mentioned that China’s control of the epidemic is fast and effective. Last year’s socio -economic development was stable, and the pressure and anxiety of people’s lives were far less than other countries, so the impact on fertility would also be less.
China ’s GDP increased by 2.3%in 2020, which is the only thing in major economies growing forward.Judging from the monthly data of the total retail sales of consumer goods, the Chinese consumer market basically returned to the level before the epidemic in the second half of last year.
In 2020, the total retail sales of Chinese consumer goods in each month increased year -on -year.Figure source: official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
The huge domestic demand market, sufficient human capital, and innovative resources brought by China’s huge population are the best cockpit stones for the "post -new crown" global market full of uncertainty.
Population growth in the next ten years
For major economies outside China, the population is not the advantage of economic recovery, but another potential crisis.
There is a systematic interaction between economic recovery and population growth.Zhang Cuiling told Times Finance that generally, the decline in fertility rates will occur during economic difficulties, and the fertility rate will rise again after the economic recovery.However, the future economic recovery of developed countries depends to a large extent on the trend of the epidemic.
"If the epidemic is not effectively controlled, the restrictions on economic activities of various countries are inevitable. The economy is difficult to recover, and the fertility rate will further decrease, thereby accelerating the aging of the population and the reduction of the population.road.
According to the Autumn Economic Outlook Report released by the European Commission in November 2020, the European EU economy was expected to decline by 7.4%in 2020, far more than the decline in the 2008 international financial crisis.Perhaps the introduction of international immigrants is a option worth considering.
However, in addition to the political debate around the topic of immigration, the epidemic itself has limited the normal flow of the world’s population, and the blockade of the national boundary has caused the population of many countries to decline.Singapore’s total population decline in 2020 was mainly due to the decrease in non -resident population.In June 2020, Singapore’s non -resident population was 1.64 million, a decrease of 2.1%compared with June 2019.In the first quarter of 2020 in Canada, the population increased by international immigrants was about 70,000, only 10,000 in the second quarter, and the net population growth brought by international immigrants in the third quarter was -27143.
For many developed countries that rely on international immigrants, the national boundary that cannot be opened normally will undoubtedly increase the cost of domestic economic recovery and hinder the global flow of capital and innovative talents.
Since the end of 2015, China has implemented a "comprehensive two -child" policy.Figure source: official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
Although the impact of the epidemic on China’s population growth may be less, the global economy cannot accelerate the pace of the economy will also affect the development of China’s economy.And after the new crown, China still has to face the problem of severe population aging.
Zhang Cuiling told Times Finance that "According to the relevant research of the China Population and Development Research Center, the natural growth rate of my country’s population during the" Fourteenth Five -Year Plan "will continue to decline, the total population will maintain low -speed inertia growth, and in the next ten years, it will experience from population growth to negative population growth in the next ten years. Major turning. At present, the aging population is accelerating the rising cost of employment in my country, and the global epidemic has further exacerbated the problems of the use of work chain, capital chain, supply chain and industrial chain. "
A few days ago, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Justice issued the "Long -term Nursing Insurance Measures (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)".Officials are expected that as population aging accelerates, Shenzhen will enter an aging society in 2029.
China’s "14th Five -Year Plan" outline has promoted the aging of the population to the national strategy, which mentioned that it is necessary to "enhance the tolerance of fertility policies, improve the level of eugenics and breeding services, develop an inclusive care service system, reduce fertility, raise, and educate educationCost, promote long -term balanced population. "
Wei Chen also believes that in order to increase the birth rate of China’s population, it is necessary to start with measures such as reducing the burden on raising children and reducing the cost of fertility in women.
